Saving & investing
Retirement Calculator
Project your retirement savings year by year, in today’s money after inflation, with the income a 4% withdrawal supports and your financial-independence age.
Portfolio at 67
$2,605,873.13
worth $872,923.03 in today's money after 3% inflation over 37 years
Annual income at 4%
$104,234.93
$34,916.92 in today's money
You contribute
$453,250.00
$12,250.00 per year to start, plus $52,500.00 already saved
Investment growth
$2,100,123.13
3.88% real return a year
Social Security replaces part of pre-retirement income and is not modelled here; subtract it from the income you need the portfolio to provide.
Where the 4% withdrawal rate comes from
The Trinity study's 4% rule, derived from United States stock and bond returns since 1926. It assumes a 30-year retirement and a balanced portfolio.
Income is the balance multiplied by that rate: $2,605,873.13 × 4% = $104,234.93 in the year you retire, $34,916.92 in today's money. It is the portfolio's own income; anything the state pays comes on top and is not counted here.
The target runs the other way: $59,500.00 ÷ 4% = $1,487,500.00 in today's money, $4,440,524.68 at the prices of the year you retire.
How the balance at 67 was projected
One year at a time from 30 to 67. Each year the balance grows by 7%, then that year's contribution is added at the end of the year, the conservative convention and the one Excel's FV uses with type 0. Of the $2,605,873.13 projected, $52,500.00 is what you have now, $453,250.00 is contributions and $2,100,123.13 is growth.
The projection assumes every year is the same: a 7% return and 3% inflation, with no tax, no fees, no employer contributions and no state or public pension. Real returns arrive in an order, and a bad run just before you retire costs far more than the same run twenty years earlier.
United States assumptions. An estimate, not financial advice, providers may calculate differently.
- Balance
- In today's money
Why the two lines pull apart
The gap is inflation. Each year's balance is divided by 3% compounded over the years since today, so after 37 years the divisor is 2.985 and $2,605,873.13 becomes $872,923.03.
The return you enter is nominal. Against 3% inflation it is worth 3.88% a year in real terms, from (1 + return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1 rather than one subtracted from the other, which would read 4.00%.
Year by year
| Age | Balance | In today's money |
|---|
A result link includes the numbers you entered. Share it only with people you want to see them.
How this is calculated
Retirement planning comes down to one projection: take what you have, add what you will save, grow it at a rate you believe in, and see what it is worth when you stop working. The calculator steps forward one year at a time from your current age to your retirement age; each year the balance grows by the return, then the year's contribution is added. Because a figure decades away is hard to judge, every amount is shown twice, the nominal figure that will appear on the statement and the same amount in today's money, deflated by the inflation rate you enter. The portfolio is then turned into an income with a withdrawal rate and compared with the income you want, which gives the age at which your savings first cover it: the financial-independence, or FIRE, age.
B(t)B(t − 1) × (1 + g) + C(t)
Real balance(t)B(t) ÷ (1 + i)t
IncomePortfolio × w
FIRE numberDesired income ÷ w
- B(t)
- the balance at the end of year t; B(0) is what you have saved today
- g
- the annual return, as a decimal
- C(t)
- the contribution in year t, rising each year by the contribution-increase rate
- i
- the inflation rate
- w
- the withdrawal rate in retirement
What this does not include
- Tax on contributions or withdrawals: the projection is gross.
- State pensions and Social Security; subtract them from the income you enter.
- Employer matching: add it to your contribution.
- Fees and the sequence of returns: a 7% average is not 7% every year.
How this calculator works
Retirement calculator guide: nominal, real and the FIRE number. The year-by-year projection, the Fisher relation that turns a nominal return into a real one, why the 4% rule is an American result, and a 37-year example.
This calculator in other countries
Each country has its own rates, thresholds and rules, and its own page that runs the calculator on them and cites the official sources they came from.
Data sources
| Dataset | Authority | Effective | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States consumer finance conventions | Social Security Administration | Within its effective period | |
| United Kingdom consumer finance conventions | GOV.UK | Within its effective period | |
| German consumer finance conventions | Deutsche Rentenversicherung | Not yet in effect | |
| Canadian consumer finance conventions | Government of Canada | Within its effective period | |
| Australian consumer finance conventions | Services Australia | Within its effective period | |
| Irish consumer finance conventions | Citizens Information | Within its effective period | |
| Dutch consumer finance conventions | SVB | Within its effective period | |
| New Zealand consumer finance conventions | Work and Income | Within its effective period | |
| Swedish consumer finance conventions | Pensionsmyndigheten | Within its effective period | |
| Indian consumer finance conventions | Reserve Bank of India | Within its effective period | |
| Sri Lankan consumer finance conventions | Central Bank of Sri Lanka | Within its effective period | |
| Finnish consumer finance conventions | Finnish Centre for Pensions | Within its effective period | |
| Japanese consumer finance conventions | Japan Pension Service | Within its effective period | |
| French consumer finance conventions | Service-public.fr | Within its effective period | |
| Spanish consumer finance conventions | Seguridad Social | Within its effective period |
Every document each dataset was read from, its notes and how the figures were checked are listed in the guide's data sources.
This calculator is for general information only and is not financial advice. Results are estimates based on the figures you enter and the stated formula; lenders and providers may round or calculate differently. Check any decision with the institution involved or a qualified adviser.