Retirement
FIRE Calculator
Find the portfolio that would cover your spending at a chosen withdrawal rate, and how many years your savings rate takes to build it, in today's money.
Years to financial independence
18.2 years
$1,000,000.00 invested, at age 48
Your FI number
$1,000,000.00
25 times a year's spending
Savings rate
43%
$30,000.00 a year saved
Your portfolio pays today
$2,000.00
a year, at 4% of $50,000.00
How the $1,000,000.00 target was set
At a 4% withdrawal rate the portfolio must be $40,000.00 ÷ 0.04 = $1,000,000.00, or 25 times a year's spending. Because spending and return are both in today's money, the target needs no inflating.
The Trinity study's 4% rule, derived from United States stock and bond returns since 1926. It assumes a 30-year retirement and a balanced portfolio. It is a planning rule drawn from history, not a guarantee.
How 18.2 years was worked out
You save $30,000.00 a year, $2,500.00 a month, on top of $50,000.00 already invested. Grown at 5% a year after inflation, (1 + 5%)^(1/12) − 1 a month, the portfolio passes $1,000,000.00 after 219 months.
Today's money, a steady real return. An estimate, not financial advice, providers may calculate differently.
- Portfolio
What the savings rate does
| Savings rate | Years to FI from nothing |
|---|---|
| 10% | 50.9 years |
| 20% | 36.3 years |
| 30% | 27.6 years |
| 40% | 21.3 years |
| 50% | 16.4 years |
| 60% | 12.2 years |
| 70% | 8.6 years |
Saving more works twice: the portfolio grows faster, and the spending it has to cover is smaller.
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How this is calculated
Your target, the FI number, is the portfolio whose withdrawal at the rate you choose would pay for a year of the spending you enter; at the opening 4% that is twenty-five years' worth. The calculator then takes what you save each year, take-home income less spending, adds it monthly to what you have already invested, grows the total at a real return after inflation, and counts the months until it passes the target. Because the return is real and the spending is today's, every figure on the page is in today's money and needs no adjusting for inflation.
FI numberS ÷ w
- S
- Spending a year
- w
- Withdrawal rate, as a decimal
What this does not include
- Tax on withdrawals, which raises the spending the portfolio must cover.
- State pensions and other income later in life, which lower it.
- Market sequence risk: the return is steady, real markets are not.
- Spending that changes in retirement, such as healthcare or a paid-off mortgage.
How this calculator works
FIRE maths: the FI number, the savings rate and the 4% rule. How the FI number follows from spending and a withdrawal rate, why the savings rate sets the timetable, and what the research behind the 4% rule shows.
Data sources
| Dataset | Authority | Effective | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States consumer finance conventions | Social Security Administration | Within its effective period |
Every document each dataset was read from, its notes and how the figures were checked are listed in the guide's data sources.
This calculator is for general information only and is not financial advice. Results are estimates based on the figures you enter and the stated formula; lenders and providers may round or calculate differently. Check any decision with the institution involved or a qualified adviser.