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Policy rates against inflation in 2025

A central bank's rate tells you what money earns; inflation tells you what it loses. Set the two side by side for 2025 and the gap, the real policy rate, ranges from comfortably positive to well below zero.

Reviewed by CentExact23 sources

Most rates stayed ahead of prices

Of the 14 countries compared, 11 had a policy rate that averaged more than their inflation over 2025, so money held at the central bank's rate kept, and slightly grew, its value. The median real rate was +0.76 points. The highest was in India, at +3.61 points, where the Reserve Bank of India's repo rate averaged 5.79% while prices rose 2.18%.

At the other end, 3 countries had a negative real rate, led by Japan at −2.70 points. The Bank of Japan raised its rate during the year, ending it at 0.75%, but its average of 0.49% stayed far below inflation of 3.19%, the result of decades of rates near zero and only a recent return to positive ones.

One rate, six real rates

The six euro-area countries share one policy rate. The ECB's deposit facility rate averaged 2.26% over the year and stood at 2.00% at its end. Inflation was not shared: it ranged from 0.34% in Finland to 3.20% in the Netherlands. So the same rate gave Finland a real rate of +1.92 points and the Netherlands one of −0.94 points, a gap of 2.86 percentage points inside a single currency. This is the old difficulty of a monetary union: a rate set for the average fits none of its members exactly.

Falling rates, falling margins

Most central banks spent the year cutting. The Federal Reserve's target range averaged 4.25% but ended the year at a midpoint of 3.63%; the Bank of England's rate averaged 4.25% against inflation of 3.37%, a real rate of only +0.88 points. Because the average looks back over the whole year, a country that cut late still shows a higher real rate than its rate at the end of the year would give.

What a real policy rate means for you

A savings account rarely pays the policy rate itself, but the rates banks offer follow it, so the real policy rate is a guide to whether cash savings are keeping pace with prices. Where it is negative, money on deposit loses purchasing power even before tax on the interest. To see what that does over years, try the inflation calculator on your savings, or the compound interest calculator with your own rate.

How the figures were produced

Every rate comes from the same committed rate trackers as the rate pages, and every inflation figure from the price indices behind the inflation calculator. The rate is an average over the year rather than a single day, and inflation compares the two annual averages, so the two measure the same span. Sri Lanka is not in the ranking: the price index we hold disagrees with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka's published annual average for the year, and a ranking built on it would be wrong.

Real policy rates in 2025

Bar chart of each country's average policy rate in 2025 less its consumer price inflation, in percentage points: highest India at +3.61 points, lowest Japan at −2.70 points.

  1. 1India5.79% less 2.18%+3.61
  2. 2Finland2.26% less 0.34%+1.92
  3. 3United States4.25% less 2.63%+1.62
  4. 4Sweden2.09% less 0.68%+1.41
  5. 5France2.26% less 0.94%+1.32
  6. 6Australia3.88% less 2.84%+1.04
  7. 7United Kingdom4.25% less 3.37%+0.88
  8. 8Canada2.70% less 2.07%+0.63
  9. 9New Zealand3.25% less 2.84%+0.41
  10. 10Germany2.26% less 2.17%+0.09
  11. 11Ireland2.26% less 2.21%+0.05
  12. 12Spain2.26% less 2.67%−0.41
  13. 13Netherlands2.26% less 3.20%−0.94
  14. 14Japan0.49% less 3.19%−2.70

Every country, in full

Average policy rate over 2025, weighted by the days each level was in force, against consumer price inflation over the year, highest real rate first. Download the results as CSV.

Policy rates and inflation in 2025
CountryAverage rateInflationReal rate
India5.79%2.18%+3.61 points
Finland2.26%0.34%+1.92 points
United States4.25%2.63%+1.62 points
Sweden2.09%0.68%+1.41 points
France2.26%0.94%+1.32 points
Australia3.88%2.84%+1.04 points
United Kingdom4.25%3.37%+0.88 points
Canada2.70%2.07%+0.63 points
New Zealand3.25%2.84%+0.41 points
Germany2.26%2.17%+0.09 points
Ireland2.26%2.21%+0.05 points
Spain2.26%2.67%−0.41 points
Netherlands2.26%3.20%−0.94 points
Japan0.49%3.19%−2.70 points

Method

For each country, the policy rate's average over the 2025 calendar year is each level the central bank set weighted by the days it was in force, from the committed rate tracker for that bank; a target range, such as the Federal Reserve's, counts at its midpoint, and the six euro-area countries share the ECB's deposit facility rate. Inflation is the change in the country's consumer price index from its 2024 annual average to its 2025 annual average. The real rate is the average policy rate less inflation, in percentage points. Sri Lanka is left out because the price index we hold gives 2025 inflation well below the Central Bank of Sri Lanka's published figure, and a ranking on it would be wrong.

Work out your own figure

Data sources

Federal funds target rangeFREDWithin its effective period
Bank of England Bank RateBank of EnglandWithin its effective period
Bank of Canada target for the overnight rateBank of CanadaWithin its effective period
Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate targetReserve Bank of AustraliaWithin its effective period
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash RateReserve Bank of New ZealandWithin its effective period
Riksbank policy rateSveriges RiksbankWithin its effective period
Bank of Japan policy interest rateBank of JapanWithin its effective period
Reserve Bank of India policy repo rateReserve Bank of IndiaWithin its effective period
ECB deposit facility rateEuropean Central Bank Data PortalWithin its effective period
US CPI-U annual averages (all items, U.S. city average, 1982-84=100)U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsWithin its effective period
CPI all items, annual averages (2010 = 100)Office for National StatisticsWithin its effective period
Consumer Price Index, annual averages (2010 = 100)Statistics CanadaWithin its effective period
Consumer Price Index, all groups, annual averages (2010 = 100)Australian Bureau of StatisticsWithin its effective period
Consumers price index, all groups, annual averages (2010 = 100)Stats NZWithin its effective period
Konsumentprisindex (KPI), annual averages (2010 = 100)Statistics SwedenWithin its effective period
Consumer Price Index, all items, annual averages (2010 = 100)Statistics Bureau of JapanWithin its effective period
Consumer Price Index, annual averages (2010 = 100)Ministry of Statistics and Programme ImplementationWithin its effective period
Verbraucherpreisindex, annual averages (2010 = 100)Statistisches BundesamtWithin its effective period
Consumer Price Index, annual averages (2010 = 100)Central Statistics OfficeWithin its effective period
Consumentenprijsindex, annual averages (2010 = 100)CBSWithin its effective period
Kuluttajahintaindeksi, annual averages (2010 = 100)Statistics FinlandWithin its effective period
Indice des prix a la consommation, annual averages (2010 = 100)INSEEWithin its effective period
Indice de Precios de Consumo, annual averages (2010 = 100)INEWithin its effective period